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Monday, 28 March 2011

  • Regulating Frontier Market Funds as Value Creating Enterprises

    Imaduddin Ahmed

    The Fletcher School, Tufts University Graduate School of International Affairs

                  I.      Introduction

    Do the current U.S. laws regulating the fund-raising activities of private equity funds raising capital for portfolio companies adequately balance the interests of sophisticated investors seeking higher returns, foreign private equity funds and firms in least developing countries requiring growth capital with the interests of lay investors? This is the question that I will attempt to answer in the forthcoming paper.

    It is a question that came to the fore when sent a response by a colleague on a networkers' email listserv. I, a graduate student, had invited colleagues via email to attend a speaker event that I was organising on my campus; the principal of TLG Capital was to present how his private equity fund delivered both high social as well as financial value in frontier markets. My email, however, was interpreted by my colleague as a fund-raising solicitation. 

    To tackle the question, I will begin by laying out the interests at stake, which of those the U.S. government concerns itself with and which of those interests clash with one another. I will then examine how the U.S. government has attempted to balance those interests in terms of the regulations in place. I will examine registration requirements, exemptions and modifications made by the Dodd-Frank Act subsequent to the 2008 financial crisis. Having lain out the policy objectives and described the policy in place, I will then assess whether the government’s laws meet its objectives, and, if not, make recommendations for how it could better achieve those objectives.

     

                II.      Key interests at stake

    When it comes to regulating to ensure consumer protection, the government usually has to balance the interests of the lay consumer with those of the U.S. economy, at least theoretically. (The interests of corporations without regard to the benefits bestowed overall on the U.S. economy also get weighed.*[1])  So it is with the protection of lay investors from fraud, inadequate disclosure and manipulation of stock prices[2]: the government has to consider the potentially clashing interests of the U.S. economy in both the short-term, and the long-term, as well as the freedom of informed U.S. investors to make their own choices. Arguably, the U.S. government should also take into account the impact that its regulations could have on the development of lesser developed countries, without regard to its own enlightened self-interest.

    Certainly, when it comes to the welfare of people of lesser developed nations, the U.S. has sacrificed short-term benefits to its own economy, and the benefits of doing so are not always couched in terms of self-interest, as is demonstrated by President George W Bush’s State of the Union address on January 29th, 2003 relating to the introduction of the President's Emergency Plan for Aids Relief (Pepfar), which was to save more than a million people with HIV in Africa[3] at the expense of $15 billion to the U.S. economy:

    “As our nation moves troops and builds alliances to make our world safer, we must also remember our calling, as a blessed country, is to make the world better [ . . . ] I ask the Congress to commit $15 billion over the next five years, to turn the tide against AIDS in the most afflicted nations of Africa and the Caribbean."[4]

    Besides humanitarian considerations, the U.S. government has its long-term interests to think of. A weak sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) represents cause for concern in terms of security, as well as lost opportunities for American businesses. The post-World War II rebuilding of Japan and Europe with the Marshall Plan has gained U.S. corporations access to deep markets and gained the U.S. economy invaluable trading partnerships that continue today. Facilitating, therefore, investment into SSA that will help improve the growth and liquidity of companies in the region, which will in turn address consumer demand for solutions to healthcare problems, as well as unemployment, is a desirable policy goal for the U.S. government. Indeed, it is congruent with the objectives of the Generalised System of Preference and the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act that the U.S. has acted upon.

    More direct long-term interests to be thought of are maintaining the U.S.A.’s status as home of the world’s leading capital markets, which requires openness to foreign issuers. Too, hindering sophisticated investors from taking a  different set of risks restricts not only their individual freedom – anathema to the spirit of America*[5] – but hinders them from not diversifying the risk of their portfolios, and hinders them from achieving superior returns that could be circulated within the U.S. economy.

    At the same time, the U.S. government has a duty to protect its citizens from becoming victims of crime, such as fraud, and will want to ensure that its markets run efficiently, with low transaction costs. To use the language of the International Organization of Securities Commissioners (IOSCO), the U.S. government will want to protect investors from ‘misleading, manipulative or fraudulent practices’ and ensure that markets are ‘fair, efficient and transparent’.[6]

              III.      Protecting investors and capital formation

    To this end, Congress passed the Securities Act of 1933 and the Investment Company Act of 1940; access to the U.S.A.’s public financial markets would be conditioned upon disclosure. Further, Congress passed the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, creating an agency whose raison d’etre would be to protect investors, as well as capital formation.[7] Such a siloing of purpose means, as will be seen, that not all matters of interest to the U.S. government are given due consideration.

    Of issuers, the International Organisation of Securities Commissions recommends the ‘full, accurate and timely disclosure of financial results and other information which is material to investors’ decisions’.[8] This philosophy the S.E.C. abides by for securities that are publicly traded. The types of disclosures the S.E.C. requires include forms S-1, S-3, F-1 (for foreign issuers, Form 20-F, Form 6-K),  descriptions of the business and its properties, descriptions of risks, legal proceedings or environmental problems that the firm faces, a description of the compensation of the top management, a description of the securities and the capital structure, a disclosure of shareholders with greater than 5% ownership in the company, a description of the plan of distribution and arrangements made with underwriters, a description of the plan of the use of proceeds, a management discussion of the firm’s financial situation and any changes in the financial condition since the previous year, disclosure of any other material information, audited balance sheets for 2 years, audited income statements for 3 years, an audit report and cash flows.[9] The firm’s auditors are required to be independent and the firm’s accounts must reconcile with USGAAP, unless the issuer is foreign, in which case IFRS is now acceptable.*[10] 

    Liability for faulty misstatements or omissions of material facts in the prospectus is strict, and according to Section 11, there is no defense for this. Underwriters and directors also have strict liability, but have recourse to a due diligence defense.[11]

    For securities that are intended for investors more sophisticated than the general public, however, the S.E.C. does away with the registration and disclosure requirements. These securities ‘lack the same degree of transparency required of publicly offered issuers, on the theory that these investors can "fend for themselves,"’ explains Andrew Donohue, Director of the S.E.C. Division of Investment Management.[12]

    Driven by the reluctance of foreign issuers to enter the U.S. market with such stringent registration requirements, the S.E.C. adopted Rule 144A in 1990.[13] Within a year, foreign firms were responsible for one-third of the $16.7B in issuance of Rule 144A stock [ . . . ], as compared with 16% and 7% of offerings made in private and pubic bond markets respectively.[14] In 2007, nearly 80% of capital raised by foreign firms in the U.S. was done through the 144A market. [15]

    Rule 144A applies to issuers of private offerings to Qualified Institutional Buyers (QIBs), exempt from registration under section 4(2) of the Securities Act of 1933. The securities must not be fungible with securities trading in public markets and a two year holding period is generally required. Alternatively, the offering can be made under Rule 144, where there is a six-month holding period for reporting companies and one year for non-reporting companies.[16]

    Qualified Institutional Buyers must own and invest a minimum of $100 million in securities or must be owned by firms or individuals all of whom qualify as QIBs. If the firm is a bank or a thrift, it must have a net worth of $25 million. A QIB can only make purchases for itself or for another QIB.

    The Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act of 2010 further decreases the participation of QIBs in private equity funds, to 3% of Tier 1 Capital through the second Volcker Rule.[17]

    Disclosure under Rule 144A is minimal – only required at the purchaser’s request, and, according to Hal Scott, ‘some minimal financial information’, which can be waived if the foreign issuer files home country reports under Rule 12g3-2(b). Failure to disclose or misstatements are only subject to private actions under Rule 10b-5 liability.

    Under this exemption, unsolicited transactions – including, according to Rule 15a-6(a)(1), placing telephone calls, advertising through broadcast media or publications in general circulation in the U.S. or conducting seminars for U.S. investors – are prohibited. 

    In May 2006, the highly leveraged buyout private equity fund Kohlberg Kravis Roberts (KKR) sold its offering to U.S. institutional investors through the Rule 144A market. Writes Scott[18], ‘it appears they did not list in the U.S. due to concerns as to whether the offering would be regarded as an investment company under the 1940 Investment Company Act, with the effect that significant restrictions, eg as to leverage and fees, would be imposed on their operations, and result in the need for greater disclosure about the fortunes of the private companies in which they invest.’

    Another avenue that private equity funds can take in order to raise funds without registering is through individuals,  by using the private fund exemption under Section 3(c)(1) or Section 3(c)(7) of the Investment Company Act of 1940, together with the section 4(2) exemption of the Securities Act of 1933.[19] The former limits the number of investors to 100, while the latter permits only “qualified investors”[20] who also meet the “accredited investor” test of Regulation D[21] – individuals or family partnerships with at least $5 million in investable assets and companies with at least $25 million. – to invest.[22] For exemption, Rule 506 of Regulation D prohibits the offering or selling its securities using “general solicitation or general advertising.”[23] Such solicitation is defined in Rule 502(c) and include print advertising, media broadcasts, an invitation to a seminar or meeting by such methods as constituting general solicitation or advertising.[24] Emails soliciting capital must be targeted at only accredited or otherwise sophisticated investors.[25]

    Rule 506 does allow for the sale to up to 35 non-accredited investors who are financially sophisticated, ie possess  “such knowledge and experience in financial and business matters that he is capable of evaluating the merits and risks of the prospective investment.”[26] To remain exempt, funds must take steps to prevent their securities from being resold by the purchaser without registration or qualification for another exemption, by, for example, inquiring as to whether the purchaser is an underwriter with the intent to resell and making clear in writing to investors of their inability to resell without registering under the Securities Act.[27]

    Either way, private equity managers meet the definition of “investment adviser” under the Advisers Act of 1940, since they ‘engage in the business of advising others’ for compensation as to the advisability of investing in securities, and do not fall into one of the exempted professions.

    However, section 203(b) of the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended by section 403 of the Private Fund Investment Advisers Registration Act of 2010,  exempts from registration ‘any investment adviser that is a foreign private adviser’, which is convenient for a London-based growth equity fund. Before the amendment, a manager at TLG Capital may have found exemption in the clause that this new clause supplants, had the manager not had more than 15 clients.

    Funds engaging in private placements pursuant to section 4(2) and Regulation D are subject to liability under the Securities Act, the Securities Exchange Act and the Advisers Act, and can be sued by the S.E.C. not only for fraudulent and misleading statements and omissions, but for negligence.[28]

    We will not concern ourselves with Regulation S since ownership in funds is seldom traded and we are concerned with the direct selling of securities in the U.S.A.

              IV.      Critique

    Fund-raising through Rule 144A and through Regulation D exemptions will face different advantages and disadvantages. Both methods stymie solicitation, though emails by students advertising funds visiting their universities would not likely have contravened these limitations because a) they are not solicitations for capital raising[29] and b) students are not compensated for sending out emails advertising events they themselves organise.[30]

    A specified required holding period of up to two years, as stipulated for funds raising through Rule 144A, should not harm growth equity funds, which often require lock-in periods of 5+2 years.[31] Many funds will, in any case, count IRR from the time of divestment, as opposed to the time that the investor receives his money back.[32]

    The S.E.C. will sue for misstatement, fraud and omissions, intended or otherwise, for funds raising capital through Regulation D, and understandably so, given that the targets are individuals rather than Qualified Institutional Buyers institution, which possess, in the words of Scott, ‘the most sophisticated knowledge of the securities market’.[33] Without the resources of an institution to carry out the requisite due diligence, individuals rely on the information provided to them. The disadvantage with raising capital only through Rule 144A, however, is that smaller frontier market funds (such as TLG Capital, which in 2009 only had $25 million under management[34]) will be less likely to target individuals, who may be more appropriate investors at the earlier stages of fund growth.

    That Volcker’s rules reduce the participation of QIBs in growth equity funds, despite the fact that they are not highly levered and their investments in commercial companies do not pose the systemic risk that Volcker’s rules try to protect the economy from (unless they were financial institutions, in which case they would be regulated for that part of their business like other financial services holding companies[35]), makes little sense. It also makes little sense that the number of QIBs should be limited to 500 without triggering regulation under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 and Sarbanes Oxley. 

    The restriction on investors by number or by wealth through Regulation D is, however, a nonsense. In the case of hedge funds, the S.E.C. worries that qualified investors “may find it difficult to appreciate [ . . . ] complicated investment strategies.”[36] While this can be said of hedge funds, it cannot be said of growth equity funds, whose most complex transactions are call options. And if this were so, why allow up to 100 investors (where there is a lower investment test presumably because of the limit on investors[37]), or up to an arbitrary 35 non-accredited ‘financially sophisticated’ investors, in the case of section 3(c)(7) Act of 1940, get fleeced? Another fault with the limit on beneficial ownership is that, according to Scott[38], many foreign investment companies will either refuse to offer their shares in the U.S. or make it very difficult for U.S. investors to buy shares in their funds, out of fear that one additional shareholder beyond 100 would cause them to no longer be exempt from the 1940 Act.

    Moreover, the limit on investors, or on financially sophisticated investors who do not possess $5 million in investments, but do possess business sense and financial literacy, denies thousands of bankers, strategy consultants, chartered accountants, corporate lawyers, financial journalists, finance and business law academics, credit rating analysts and students of finance potentially superior financial returns. It denies sophisticated investors the opportunity to decide for themselves what their risk-reward trade-off should be. In the case of funds which also achieve social returns, the limit also denies the many sophisticated investors from supporting initiatives that help develop under-financed economies in a dignified and accountable way and would, perhaps, suit their ideologies better than do most charities. Charities, which often do not support people in a dignified and accountable way, do not require have sophisticated investor[39]  requirements.[40] Why then limit the number of sophisticated investors who can hold accountable the funds purporting to do this?

    These are questions that perhaps the S.E.C may forget it can answer. Though it is an agency with siloed responsibilities, it has a duty to maintain fair markets[41] and facilitate capital formation[42]. It is hardly fair to prevent those with less than $5 million in investments from becoming rich, and it does not facilitate capital formation to stand in the way of funds accumulating capital in order to create company growth and profit growth, which would be repatriated to U.S. investors. Going forward, the S.E.C. should remove arbitrary restrictions on the limit on sophisticated investors who can invest in private equity funds, particularly growth equity funds, and review the Volcker Rules as pertaining to unlevered private equity funds.



    [1] *Consider the effects of the agricultural lobby.

    [2] C. Edward Fletcher, III, “Sophisticated Investors Under the Federal Securities Laws,” Duke Law Journal 6 (1988): 1081, 1133.

    [3] Chris McGreal, “George Bush: A Good Man in Africa,” The Guardian, February 15, 2009, accessed March 13, 2011, http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/feb/15/georgebush.usa.

    [4] “Bush’s State of the Union Speech,” CNN, January 29, 2003, accessed March 13, 2011,  http://edition.cnn.com/2003/ALLPOLITICS/01/28/sotu.transcript/ 

    [5] *Please note the precedence given to the term ‘secure the Blessings of Liberty’ in the preamble of the U.S. constitution

    [6]Objectives and Principles of Securities Regulation,” International Organization of Securities Commissioners (IOSCO), (1998): 6-7.

    [7] “The Investor's Advocate: How the SEC Protects Investors, Maintains Market Integrity, and Facilitates Capital Formation,” U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, accessed March 14, 2011, http://www.sec.gov/about/whatwedo.shtml

    [8] International Organization of Securities Commissioners (IOSCO), Objectives and Principles of Securities Regulation (1998)

    [9] Joel Trachtman, “Securities Regulation,” Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy In-Class Presentation, January 31, 2011, 19-22.; Hal S. Scott, International Finance: Transactions, Policy and Regulation (Foundation Press 17th ed. 2010), 58-61.

    [10] *USGAAP requirements ended for foreign issuers using IFRS as of 2009.; Scott, International Finance: Transactions, Policy and Regulation, 174.

    [11] Trachtman, “Securities Regulation,” 22-23.

    [12] Andrew J. Donohue, “Regulating Hedge Funds and Other Private Investment,” (Speech presented at the Fordham Journal of Corporate and Financial Law's 3rd Annual Symposium on the Regulation of Investm,ent Funds, New York, New York, February 19, 2010), http://www.sec.gov/news/speech/2010/spch021910ajd.htm

    [13] Scott, International Finance: Transactions, Policy, and Regulation, 187.

    [14] Scott, International Finance: Transactions, Policy and Regulation, 189.

    [15] Scott, International Finance: Transactions, Policy and Regulation, 189.

    [16] SEC Release No 33-8869, December 6, 2007

    [17] Viral V. Acharya et al., Regulating Wall Street: The Dodd-Frank Act and the New Architecture of Global Finance, (New York: New York University Stern School of Business, 2011), 47.

    [18] Acharya et al., Regulating Wall Street: The Dodd-Frank Act and the New Architecture of Global Finance, 111.

    [19] Shadab, “Fending for Themselves: Regulatory Reform to Create a U.S. Hedge Fund Market for Retail Investors,”  New York University Journal of Legislation and Public Policy 11 (Spring 2008): 285, accessed March 15, 2011

    [20] For further details, refer to http://www.clivecapital.com/download/definitions.pdf

    [21] Scott, International Finance: Transactions, Policy and Regulation, 947.

    [22] Donohue, “Regulating Hedge Funds and Other Private Investment.”

    [23] Regulation D, Rule 506, 17 C.F.R. §§ 230.502(c) & 506(b)(1) (2007)

    [24] Regulation D, 17 C.F.R. § 230.502(c)(1) (2007)

    [25] See In re CGI Capital, Inc., Securities Act Release No. 7904 (Sept. 29, 2000)

    [26] Regulation D, Rule 506(b)(2)(i)–(ii), 17 C.F.R. § 230.506(b)(2)(i)–(ii) (2007)

    [27] Shadab, “Fending for Themselves: Regulatory Reform to Create a U.S. Hedge Fund Market for Retail Investors,”  New York University Journal of Legislation and Public Policy 11 (Spring 2008): 288, accessed March 15, 2011

    [28] Shadab, “Fending for Themselves: Regulatory Reform to Create a U.S. Hedge Fund Market for Retail Investors,”  New York University Journal of Legislation and Public Policy, 300-301.

    [29] See In re CGI Capital, Inc., Securities Act Release No. 7904 (Sept. 29, 2000).

    [30] § 80b-3(b)(3)

    [31] Oliver Gottschalg, "Managing a Buyout and its Exit", HEC School of Management Paris In-Class Presentation, December 1, 2010.

    [32] Ibid.

    [33] Scott, International Finance: Transactions, Policy, and Regulation, 188.

    [34] Carolyn Cohn, "Signs of life seen in Africa private equity", Forbes, October 6, 2009, Accessed March 13, 2011, http://www.forbes.com/feeds/afx/2009/10/06/afx6969406.html

    [35] Scott, International Finance: Transactions, Policy, and Regulation, 113.

    [36] Shadab, “Fending for Themselves: Regulatory Reform to Create a U.S. Hedge Fund Market for Retail Investors,”  New York University Journal of Legislation and Public Policy 11 (Spring 2008): 293, accessed March 15, 2011

    [37] Scott, International Finance: Transactions, Policy, and Regulation, 947.

    [38] Ibid., 945.

    [39] *In the sense that they require social returns

    [40] Conversation with Trachtman, 14th March

    [41] “The Investor's Advocate: How the SEC Protects Investors, Maintains Market Integrity, and Facilitates Capital Formation.”

    [42] “The Investor's Advocate: How the SEC Protects Investors, Maintains Market Integrity, and Facilitates Capital Formation.”

Friday, 25 March 2011

  • Is your economy sharia compliant? (The Guardian comment piece)

    Our system of sovereign sukuk ratings could benefit the global economy and promote better cross-cultural relations

    Imaduddin Ahmed

    guardian.co.uk, Wednesday 2 February 2011 15.02 GMT

    Also, linked to by the Wall Street Journal: http://onespot.wsj.com/politics/2011/02/02/489aa/is-your-economy-sharia-compliant

    Think of two of the most common problems highlighted in today's news: the state of the global economy and violence at the hands of Islamists. Here's a possible remedy to both: a sovereign sukuk rating system.

    Such a rating would show which economies are sharia-compliant and hence suitable candidates for asset-backed Islamic bonds in the form of sovereign sukuks. The metrics used in such a rating would mean that countries would be judged on their default risk, as well as on how ethical (and hence how Islamic) their economies are.

    My colleagues Paul Hailey, Justin Lau and I at the HEC School of Management, Paris, constructed an initial rating, assessing countries on their deficit to GDP ratio, their score on the Global Peace Index, their defence spending to GDP ratio, their score on religious freedom using the Pew Forum's Government Restrictions Index as a proxy, their score on the Social Hostilities Index and their score on the Corruption Perceptions Index. We then excluded economies whose income from alcohol, interest-bearing finance, pornography and gambling crossed particular thresholds and excluded countries with populations less than 100,000, since there would be few physical assets to finance. We also excluded economies for which we did not find sufficient information. Using these metrics, we found 35 economies to be sharia compliant. Ironically, not one was an Islamic state. The top 10 economies were Norway, New Zealand, Sweden, Finland, Uruguay, Estonia, Costa Rica, the Netherlands, Slovenia and Austria.

    Were an international body of Islamist jurists, say the Islamic Financial Services Board, to come up with a similar rating with similar findings, there could be several outcomes.

    First, the fact that Muslim nations fare poorly would, hopefully, give Muslim populations pause for thought. Pakistan, currently a democracy, is debating whether to repeal its blasphemy laws, which could result in the execution of a Christian woman for allegedly insulting the prophet Muhammad. The governor of Punjab, Salmaan Taseer, spoke up against the laws and was consequently assassinated by his own bodyguard. Will keeping laws in place open to abuse by a public and officials whose nation ranks low on Transparency International's Corruption Perception Index help Pakistan surpass Norway in terms of Islamic perfection? Unlikely. Further, Pakistan's blasphemy laws prohibit Ahmadis from calling themselves Muslims or from proselytising. Allowing for religious freedom is advocated by the Qur'an, as in verse 10:99, and so, arguably, hurt Pakistan's sharia compliance, in addition to its score on the Pew Forum's Government Restrictions Index. Publicly explaining why Muslim countries fall short of Muslim standards by a respected body of Islamic jurists should reduce misguided religiously motivated crimes.

    Second, the ratings could give a number of Muslims prone to violence a sense of empowerment and hence diffuse their need for violence in order to be heard. If nations strive to improve their sharia compliance, Islamic values will have impacted the global economy.

    Third, sharia-compliant economies, such as Uruguay and Costa Rica, which are not highly rated by traditional rating agencies, will find increased demand influenced by the sovereign sukuk ratings. Their Islamic debt, influenced by this new rating, will hopefully be cheaper than traditional debt.

    Fourth (without taking into consideration the underlying asset), investment in sharia-compliant economies could help investors looking to diversify their portfolios. When comparing the return on assets of the three most sharia-compliant economies, for example, we found that they were strongly uncorrelated with, weakly uncorrelated with and weakly correlated with the Dow Jones Industrial Average over the past five years.

    There are, of course, weaknesses with the concept. The sharia-compliant economies of the world are mostly highly rated by traditional sovereign rating agencies, so there would be little value-add for them in terms of increased demand for their debt. Over-levered economies that would benefit from asset-backed Islamic bonds would not be found to be sharia compliant. Nations would be required to change their legislation to allow their debt issuers to seize the public assets financed in the case of default. This would be politically difficult to sell to voting populations. The secondary market for sovereign sukuks may be difficult to establish, given that there would be asymmetric information as to the quality of the underlying asset. To some Muslims, "sharia" is a manmade contrivance, and an effort to create sharia-compliance rankings even more so. Finally, many nations would not want to entertain the notion of being held accountable to Islamic values.

    But if a recognised body of jurists were able to come up with a such a rating, there certainly would be value-add for the global economy. Such a rating would be a source of shame for failing Islamic states and would give them standards to aspire to, as communities and nations. For non-Islamic states performing well on the rankings as well as on traditional ratings, the value-add would be an increased awareness of the shared values that Islam has with their culture. Mixing business with religion and politics could, with sovereign sukuk ratings therefore, be a source for better understanding between populations and for peace.

  • Pakistan, rebranded (Boston Globe op ed)

    An article about rebranding Pakistan to investors
     
    Pop-star Ali Zafar



    Lifetime human rights lawyer Asma Jahangir
     

    Renowned social worker Abdul Sattar Edhi


    http://www.boston.com/bostonglobe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2010/03/25/pakistan_rebranded/

    Pakistan, rebranded

    GOOGLE “PAKISTAN is’’ and you’ll find a host of common searches: “a failed state,’’ “a terrorist country,’’ “doomed’’ and — encompassing all of the above — “the problem.’’ Pakistan’s image is both the effect and a potential cause of terrorism: it scares away business investments, and leaves jobless youth without opportunities, ripe for mullahs who promise riches in the afterlife. In significant ways, however, the actual security risks faced by private enterprises in Pakistan is no greater than the violent threat they face in India.

    It is a testament to India’s public relations success that extraordinary threats, both internal and external, have done little to diminish India’s standing as a favored destination for foreign capital. In 2008, Islamist terrorists killed at least 170 civilians in India’s financial capital, Mumbai, exposing the government’s inadequacy at protecting its citizens.

    This was not a one-off occurrence. The same year, Hindu extremists had claimed at least 100 Christian lives in the state of Orissa. In 2002, Hindu extremists slaughtered up to 2,000 Muslims in Gujarat; Human Rights Watch found that the attacks were organized with extensive police participation and in close cooperation with officials of the Bharatiya Janata Party, the ruling state party.

    Meanwhile, minutes away from Hyderabad, India’s answer to Silicon Valley, a Maoist insurgency has taken grip that spreads across nine Indian states and has already cost at least 6,000 lives, according to the BBC. Secessionist movements in the north, west, and eastern parts of India are challenging the Indian state’s endurance, and are often met with extra-constitutional brutality by the state.

    Despite India’s travails, it is known by the amicable faces of actors Amitabh Bachchan and Shahrukh Khan, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, sitarist Ravi Shankar and a string of Ms. Universes. Were it not for their global outreach and the consequent foreign investment it secured, the Indian narrative today would be very different.

    So how can Pakistan emulate India’s success?

    First, Pakistan must address the major difference between the two countries: their Standard and Poor currency convertibility ratings. India is rated BBB+, Pakistan has a B-, the same as Ukraine and Argentina. Institutions seeking investments would do well, therefore, to direct investors to reputable insurers that insure against currency inconvertibility, as well as against political violence and terrorism.

    Pakistan would also do well to emphasize that it has fewer regulatory restrictions on foreign investment than neighboring India and that it ranks 58 places higher than India in the World Bank’s Doing Business’’ 2010 report; that, like India, it has a substantial middle-class population fluent in English; and that until Lehman Brothers and the food and oil price shocks of 2008, its stock exchange was growing at a rapid rate.

    Finally, Pakistan and its allies must help Pakistan exert soft-power, as its larger, similarly troubled neighbor successfully has, in order to negate associations with terrorism and failure.

    Lifetime human rights lawyer Asma Jahangir, Supreme Court Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry, who stood-up for an independent judiciary, and Aitzaz Ahsan, his lead counsel, are citizen heroes no less worthy of international status than Aung San Suu Kyim, the pro-democracy opposition leader under house arrest in Myanmar. Mukhtaran Mai, a village girl punished to gang-rape and who responded by founding schools in her community, and philanthropist Abdul Sattar Edhi, who set up the largest private ambulance service network in the world and holds the record for the longest time worked without having taken a holiday, are no less noteworthy than Mother Teresa.

    The White House is linking Muslim entrepreneurs from around the world with US businesses with which they may have synergy. The US State Department ought to do the same for Pakistani artists. Contemporary English-language fiction writers such as Mohammad Hanif entertainingly narrate stories of Pakistan. The late Sufi tenor Nusrat Fateh Ali Khan and pop artists Atif Aslam and Ali Zafar have a following throughout South Asia, but are virtually unheard of beyond.

    With a little help from its friends, Pakistan can emulate India by imprinting the face of Ali Zafar over AQ Khan in the minds of foreign investors. Enticing more investment and hence job opportunities, Pakistan and friends will have done their part to lure urchins with constructive, rather than destructive, aspirations.

    Imaduddin Ahmed is a global business scholar at The Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy. Kapil Komireddi is an Indian writer.

Thursday, 24 March 2011

  • What if the world had been following Islamic financial practices? (The Guardian comment piece)

    The Guardian:
    http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/belief/2011/jan/07/islam-fairer-finance-moral-risk

    Bloomberg BusinessWeek:
    http://bx.businessweek.com/credit-default-swaps/what-if-the-world-had-been-following-islamic-financial-practices--imaduddin-ahmed/9014944595921193510-ff9e0b5b31c32c3003bf34c8fc03f50b/

    Imaduddin Ahmed

    guardian.co.uk, Friday 7 January 2011 12.22 GMT

    Sub-prime loans US foreclosures
    Sub-prime loans, which caused housing foreclosures in the US, are not allowed in Islamic finance. Photograph: Alex Wong/Getty Images

    Imagine a world without a financial crisis. No moral hazard, so brokers won't sell mortgages without carrying out appropriate credit checks. Imagine banks not deliberately selling complex derivatives, knowing that they will be worthless. No short-selling speculation, so companies tinkering on the edge won't be pushed over. Imagine a world with Islamic finance.

    "The practices that caused the financial crisis would not have passed muster with sharia boards – committees of religiously inspired legal scholars who conduct a religious audit of a bank's activities. Neither the securitisation of sub-prime loans nor credit-default swaps are acceptable in Islamic finance," says Ibrahim Warde, author of Islamic Finance in the Global Economy and a professor at Tufts University.

    "Similarly, negative Islamic attitudes towards short-selling were vindicated by the role short-selling played in many aspects of the crisis and subsequent limits placed on short-selling in London and New York. Some old-fashioned principles such as the distrust of excessive leverage and of open-ended innovation proved well founded. As for the systematic vetting of new products by sharia advisers, it could be looked at as a system of checks and balances, a useful corrective to the groupthink that had overtaken conventional finance."

    Islamic finance extends beyond its well-known characteristics: interest-free banking and the prohibition of investment in items or activities deemed un-Islamic, such as prostitution, gambling, pornography, pig farming and alcohol. In contrast to conventional loans, Islamic bank loans are confined to financing the purchase of physical assets, to which they have recourse in case of default.

    Creditors and debtors alike must share business risk, Islamic finance prohibits speculation (such as was practised by AIG with credit default swaps) and similarly prohibits trades that are considered to have excessive risk due to uncertainty, such as naked short-selling, where there is uncertainty involved in the future delivery of the underlying asset. Arguably, Islamic finance also prohibits speculation that property prices will forever continue to rise, as well as bailouts, since they are only loss and not profit sharing for governments. (The UAE may disagree.)

    Islamic banks largely mimic conventional commercial banks through profit- and loss-sharing contracts. The bank will buy goods on behalf of the borrower and then sell it on a deferred basis at a markup. The profit-sharing principle prevents Islamic banks from outsourcing debt origination to brokers who would have no incentive to perform thorough due diligence on prospective debtors.

    Additionally, according to Warde, Islamic mortgages are attractive to customers because they are vetted by sharia advisers, and predatory practices, which are common practice with traditional mortgages, are forbidden. If customers are unable to keep up with their payments, banks are encouraged to show forbearance and are allowed to count such losses as part of their mandatory annual zakat payment, the Islamic equivalent of a charitable tax.

    "This has a cost, but if you weigh the social benefit, it's a worthwhile cost. The obligation can be handled in a prudential way. At the time of the Asian crisis, the Malaysian banks reasoned that they would have collapsed had they shown forbearance to all of their debtors. The socially desirable thing should not come at the expense of a bank's ability to survive as a business," says Warde.

    Islamic finance has its limitations. It does not wave a magic wand to do away with inherent business risk, nor does it have a way of dictating that investors avoid correlated and fat-tail risks that lead to bubbles prone to bursting.

    Auditing, too, remains a problem. Though standards are set by external bodies – the Islamic Financial Services Board and the Accounting and Auditing Organisation for Islamic Financial Institutions – it is the bank-employed sharia advisers who decide whether a financial institution is compliant with those standards or not. This maintains the inherent conflict of interest present in the relationship between traditional financial institutions and their auditors, such has been seen with KPMG and New Century Finance, a US sub-prime lender.

    With Islam being the diverse religion that it is, there is some scope for hiring scholars who will interpret the standards liberally. Western banks, with their more liberal advisers, are increasingly responsible for innovations in Islamic finance. But there are no checks to stop banks from paying for fatwas. Islamic finance has, like its non-Islamic counterpart, yet to devise a system whereby auditors are paid for by an external body.

    Would Islamic finance have allowed the world to realise the technologies that it has? Perhaps not. One spinal-repair researcher at University College London, Jacqueline Kueh, recalls how more research was funded during the boom times. Secondly, the elimination of interest that most sharia boards require would have created a highly inefficient debt market. Here, businesses would be at the mercy of Islamic bankers for the purchase of every asset they required as the banks contrived to stick to the form of their interpretation of Islamic requirements. Greater inefficiency in financing means slower growth.

    Islamic finance is not necessarily an end in itself, but it does serve to remind of the need for humane banking, the elimination of moral hazard and the reassessment of assumptions that speculators and derivatives add more value than they destroy.

    7th January, 2011


Friday, 18 March 2011

  • The business case for Anglophone sub-Saharan Africa




    http://www.youtube.com/v/XkXAqVmfdho?fs=1&hl=en_GB


    Because of the gulf that exists between the reality on the ground and the perception abroad, enterprising African companies which would drive the continent’s growth aren’t getting the financing they need.

    According to the World Bank, 86% of Indians live below the poverty-line, compared to 80% of sub-Saharan Africa.

    Yet there is optimism about India's economic prospects

    And it is misperceptions about Africa that so often leads society to think, “How more can we help?”, whereas, Africa can be a huge engine for growth, not only for itself, but for the benefit of the global economy. And it is precisely this mis-perception that has undervalued the African market and driven investors away. We call this “information arbitrage.”


    SMEs account for 60% of the GDP of developed nations . . .
    . . . they only account for 10% of Africa’s GDP

    Doubts about Africa’s viability as a market are premised on metrics like GDP per capita. But GDP per capita does not capture the informal sector, which is so important on a continent where 95% of transactions are carried out in cash. GDP per capita would not have predicted that within a decade, Nigeria would have gained 60 million new mobile phone users.

    In 1995, New York had more mobile phones than the entire African continent . . .
    this year, Africa will have as many mobiles as North America

    When we look at the rise of India and China, it wasn’t only development money that precipitated their rapid growth. It was also faith in Indian and Chinese businesses to cater to their indigenous needs. And with that faith, the middle-class emerged, and these businesses captured their growth, eventually moving on to capture international markets. 

    Facing similar income inequality, government bureaucracy and infrastructure challenges, Africa can leverage India’s experiences in creating low-cost business models and a dynamic workforce which can drive Africa’s growth.

    Africa’s collective GDP is predicted to grow by 63% between 2008 and 2020       
    - McKinsey

    African households earning $5,000 or more will have grown by 80% by 2014, since 2000   
    - McKinsey

    Yet, in the words of former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan, “Africa’s profitability is one of the best kept secrets in today’s world economy.”

    Within African industries, the telecomm sector has gained the most attention. A need for commercial capital in other sectors, meanwhile, lingers.

    The healthcare sector has so far been neglected by mainstream commercial capital. Last year, AIDS claimed 1.4 million lives in sub-Saharan Africa. Malaria kills 125 children every hour. A Boeing 737 carries 125 passengers. Imagine every hour, we have a plane crash.

    Malaria doesn’t target the young alone and adult deaths cost families across sub-Saharan Africa an estimated $12 billion in wages every year.

    Africa accounts for a quarter of the world’s disease burden, yet only accounts for 1% of its health expenditure. This needs to change.

    "Today, as I sip my Rwandan gourmet coffee and wear my Nigerian shirt here in New York, and as European men eat fresh Ghanaian pineapple for breakfast and bring Kenyan flowers home to their wives, I wonder what it will take for Western consumers to learn even more about the products of self-sufficient, hardworking, dignified Africans."
    - Dr William Easterly

    21st September, 2010

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    • Name: Imaduddin Ahmed
    • Location: Boston, Massachusetts, United States
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